Costanza's Belgian Jupiler League Picks Season 07/08 !

[Costanza]

The Belgian League is about to start again next weekend. I'm going to give it once again my best to make it into another profitable season.
Got the new blog online where the write-ups can be found every week (http://belgianleague.blogabet.com)
My unit system last year did not always make much sense so I'll keep it very simple now.
2 units = bet with high odds (3.00+)
3 units = normal play
4 units = big play
5 units = huge play

Record on the 2 Sports that I handicap myself so far on TheRX:
Jupiler League Season 06/07 TheRX posting record 25-13-7 (+18,2 % ROI)
Formula 1 Season 07 TheRX posting record 36-28-3 (+10,6 % ROI)

Just to be clear, the main reason I'm making these bets & write-ups is because it basicly helps myself. It helps me have a real close look into things and avoids me from chasing during the unavoidable downswings.

 

[Feri]

BOL for the new season Constanza and hope you beat that record from last
season, though it already looks great

 

[Costanza]

First early pick for the new season:

Pick 01: FC Dender vs Germinal Beerschot (-1) (2 Units) @ 4.000
Full write-up available @ http://belgianleague.blogabet.com

 

[Costanza]

Pick 01: Lokeren vs Sint-Truiden (+0) (3 Units) @ 1.600
(available with interwetten.com)

 

[THEMASK]

waiting your belgium stuff this season too you had a great season best of luck Constanza.

 

[fhmesq44]

Costanza, when does the season start?

 

[MrCleo]

Costanza, when does the season start?

first round of games are the 3rd/4th

 

[benrik]

I cant wait for these better leagues to start up. Scandanavia is way too unpredictable. Good luck this season!

 

[Costanza]

Thanks !
I'm also looking forward to your Romanian stuff this season Mask

The lines seem to be moving like crazy allready. GBA (-1) went down from 4.00 to 3.29. Having the early odds around wednesday will probably be a key point to make profit this season.

 

[Player]

any opinion on the Anderlecht match on Friday??

 

[Costanza]

I descided to stay away from the Anderlecht match because I have mixed feelings. Even though they have a far more superior team and were able to keep all their players, there is still something I don't thrust. To start, allmost every opening match away has been a real struggle, and just like every year I would not be surprised if Anderlecht another bad playing year like usual still winning the Title. KV Mechelen should not be that bad of an opponent. The fans in a packed sold-out home stadium for their 1st match back in the jupiler League should not be underestimated. Odds on Anderlecht to win are defenatly not worth taking even is there's a chance of them punishing the newly promoted tean. If I had to take something I would have to go with the home team +1.25 handicap. Looking forward to see haw things work out.

good luck

 

[Absinthe]

I think that the stats sometimes mean something....


25-JAN-03 Mechelen 0-2 Anderlecht
17-AUG-02 Anderlecht 4-1 Mechelen

12-MAY-01 Anderlecht 1-0 Mechelen
09-DEC-00 Mechelen 0-2 Anderlecht

01-APR-00 Anderlecht 5-0 Mechelen
06-NOV-99 Mechelen 2-5 Anderlecht

25-MAY-97 Mechelen 0-2 Anderlecht
30-NOV-96 Anderlecht 0-0 Mechelen

18-FEB-96 Anderlecht 3-1 Mechelen
10-SEP-95 Mechelen 1-3 Anderlecht .

 

[Absinthe]

I think that the stats sometimes mean something....


25-JAN-03 Mechelen 0-2 Anderlecht
17-AUG-02 Anderlecht 4-1 Mechelen

12-MAY-01 Anderlecht 1-0 Mechelen
09-DEC-00 Mechelen 0-2 Anderlecht

01-APR-00 Anderlecht 5-0 Mechelen
06-NOV-99 Mechelen 2-5 Anderlecht

25-MAY-97 Mechelen 0-2 Anderlecht
30-NOV-96 Anderlecht 0-0 Mechelen

18-FEB-96 Anderlecht 3-1 Mechelen
10-SEP-95 Mechelen 1-3 Anderlecht .

0:1 FT BET WON

As I talled....stats sometimes mean sthg

 

[Costanza]

0:1 FT BET WON

As I talled....stats sometimes mean sthg

are you serious ?

Anderlecht played horrible and did not really deserve the win against a good and very motivated KV Mechelen. A late goal in overtime got them to get away with the 0 - 1 win.
Betting on Anderlecht in this match @ 1.50 odd just becase some statistics of many years ago in matches where the situation was completely differend is defenatly -EV

 

[Absinthe]

that's ur opinion.Now the money it's in my pocket and that's the only important thing write now...

 

[Feri]

Very good thoughts on Anderlecht game Constanza. This was a more than
lucky last seconds win and with your insight and depth, you'll make (again)
very nice profit here!

:toast:

 

[Costanza]

Last Minute Bet

Pick 03: Club Brugge vs Bergen 2 or 3 Goals [No bet if 0 or 1 Goal] (3 Units) @ 1.634

available with expekt
2.34 units on 2 or 3 Goals @ 2.10 (expekt)
0.66 units on 0 or 1 Goal @ 4.50 (expekt)

 

[Costanza]

Jupiler League Week 01 Bets
Pick 01: FC Dender vs Germinal Beerschot (-1) (2 Units) @ 4.000 --> SCORE 1 - 2 [PUSH + 0.000 Units]
Pick 02: Lokeren vs Sint-Truiden (+0) (3 Units) @ 1.600 --> SCORE 2 - 1 [WON + 1.800 Units]
Pick 03: Club Brugge vs Bergen 2 or 3 Goals [0 or 1 =NB] (3 Units) @ 1.634 --> SCORE 2 - 1 [WON + 1.914 Units]

It's always nice have to take a good start in a new season.

Season 07/08 Record:
Picks = 3
Won / Lost / Push = 2 / 0 / 1 (100 % Winners !)
Units Bet = 8 units
Units Return = 11.714 units
Average Stake = 2.66 units
Profit = + 3.714 Units
ROI = +46,4 %

I will be back next week with more !

 

[fhmesq44]

nice day Costanza. didn't have the option on the Brugge game but ended up taking Germinal to win so it all worked out. Looking forward to a great year.

 

[Costanza]

Nice to know you were able to cash fhmesq44 !